About Against The Top Down Approach To Buying Stocks
If you have heard fund managers talk about the way they invest, you know a great many employ a top down approach. First, they decide how much of their portfolio to allocate to stocks and how much to allocate to bonds. At this point, they may also decide upon the relative mix of foreign and domestic securities. Next, they decide upon the industries to invest in. It is not until all these decisions have been made that they actually get down to analyzing any particular securities. If you think logically about this approach for but a moment, you will recognize how truly foolish it is.
A stock's takings yield is the inverse of its P / E proportion. Hence a stock with a P / E proportion of twenty-five has a revenues yield of 4%, while a stock with a P / E ratio of eight has a revenues yield of 12.5%. In this manner, a low P / E stock is equivalent to a high yield bond.
Now, if these low P / E stocks had extraordinarily unsteady takings or carried a great amount of debt, the spread between the long bond yield and the takings yield of these stocks could be justified. Nevertheless many low P / E stocks basically have more steady takings than their high multiple family. Some do employ a good deal of debt. Still, inside latest memory, one could find a stock with a revenues yield of eight 12%, a dividend yield of 3- five percent, and literally no debt, despite some of the lowest bond yields in half a century. This situation could only come about if investors shopped for their bonds without also considering stocks. This makes about as much sense as purchasing a truck without also considering a vehicle or wagon.
All investments are ultimately cash to cash operations. As such, they should be judged by a single measure: the discounted value of their future cash flows. For this reason, a top down approach to investing is nonsensical. Starting your search by first deciding upon the form of security or the industry is like a general manager deciding upon a left handed or right handed pitcher before evaluating each individual player. In both cases, the choice is not merely hasty; it's false. Even if pitching left handed is inherently more effective, the general manager is not comparing apples and oranges; he's comparing pitchers. Whatever inherent advantage or disadvantage exists in a pitcher's handedness can be reduced to an ultimate value (e.g., run value). For this reason, a pitcher's handedness is merely one factor (among many) to be considered, not a binding choice to be made. The same is true of the form of security. It is neither more necessary nor more logical for an investor to prefer all bonds over all stocks (or all retailers over all banks) than it is for a general manager to prefer all lefties over all righties. You needn't determine whether stocks or bonds are attractive; you need only determine whether a particular stock or bond is attractive. Likewise, you needn't determine whether "the market" is undervalued or overvalued; you need only determine that a particular stock is undervalued. If you're convinced it is, buy it - the market be damned!
If you are convinced it is, purchase it the market be damned! Obviously , the most shrewd approach to investing is to appraise every individual security re all others, and only to consider the kind of security insofar as it has effects on every individual analysis. A top down approach to investing is a needless barrier. Some awfully smart speculators have imposed it on themselves and beat it ; there's no need for you to do the same.
Article Source: FxTradingStock.com
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by: George Priestley
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Date: Mon, 7 Feb 2011
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